Thiruvananthapuram: The upcoming Kerala Assembly elections have sparked immense curiosity on the nation’s political map. In this high-voltage election scheduled for April-May, the ruling LDF (Left Democratic Front) is striving to create history with a third consecutive win. Meanwhile, a resurgent UDF (United Democratic Front) and a strengthened BJP (NDA) are gearing up to storm the Left’s fortress.

Political Background: A Walk Through History

From 1977 to 2016, Kerala never saw the same alliance return to power for two consecutive terms. However, the LDF, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, broke this long-standing tradition by securing back-to-back victories in 2016 and 2021.

The Previous Result (2021): The LDF won 99 seats, while the Congress-led UDF was restricted to 41 seats.

Shifting Political Winds: The Rise of UDF and BJP

The political landscape of Kerala has undergone significant changes over the last two years:

The UDF Wave: In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the UDF showcased its might by winning 18 out of 20 seats. The fact that Congress has made inroads into the Left's traditional rural strongholds has caused concern within the LDF.

BJP’s Historic Progress: The victory in the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency and the recent takeover of the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation in local body polls have established the BJP as a 'formidable third force' in Kerala.

A Triangular Contest: The BJP Challenge

In major cities like Thiruvananthapuram, the BJP is now providing direct competition to both the Congress and the Left. During the Lok Sabha elections, Rajeev Chandrasekhar’s strong performance pushed the Left candidates to the third spot. This time, the distribution of urban votes will be a decisive factor.

Internal Friction Within Congress

Despite favorable winning prospects for the UDF, the internal tussle over the 'Chief Minister's post' has become a major headache:

The Karnataka Effect: The leadership struggle in Karnataka between Siddaramaiah and D.K. Shivakumar has cast a shadow over the Kerala Congress unit.

The Shashi Tharoor Factor: Although MP Shashi Tharoor has publicly stated he is not in the CM race, several surveys identify him as the most popular candidate, causing unease among the party's senior veterans.

What do the Surveys Predict?

Preliminary surveys released in mid-2025 present a mixed bag of results:

Report 1: Predicts that the LDF might achieve a hat-trick with a slim majority.

Report 2: Suggests that the UDF could seize power this time by a hair's breadth.

The Verdict: Between the anti-incumbency sentiment, the quietly rising vote share of the BJP, and the internal strife within the Congress, it remains a mystery as to who will emerge victorious in this political battle for Kerala.