On Tuesday, April 14, 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first long-range forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon, indicating of a challenging year ahead for India's agricultural sector and water management. Amazon Brand - Myx Women's Pure Cotton Embroidered Short Kurti | Tunic | Short Kurta (Available in Plus Sizes)
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra announced that India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall, estimated at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The primary reason for the passive forecast is the high probability of El Nino conditions developing during the monsoon season. While neutral conditions currently persist, El Nino is expected to strengthen as the season progresses.
The IMD is also monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole. Currently, conditions are neutral. A "positive IOD" can sometimes counterbalance the negative impact of El Nino, but current models do not yet guarantee a strong positive phase to save the season.
while the monsoon sets in during June, the negative effects of El Nino—which typically overturns rainfall in the Indian subcontinent, will become most prominent after June i.e. July and August. Since July and August are the peak months for Kharif crop sowing (rice, pulses, oilseeds), a 92% forecast raises serious concerns regarding crop yields and rural income. Right to Vote vs. Election Timeline: Supreme Court Prioritizes Fairness for 34 Lakh Excluded Voters in West Bengal
States like Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Gujarat, which rely significantly on monsoon surplus to fill reservoirs for the winter season, may face water scarcity. The IMD has warned that a delayed or weak monsoon could extend the duration of the current heatwaves across Central and Northwest India. Lebanon Refuses to be a "Bargaining Chip" as Hezbollah Resumes Strikes Following Deadly Air Raids
The IMD is planning to issue an updated forecast in late May 2026, which will provide a more granular, region-wise breakdown of rainfall distribution and an adequate picture of the onset date over the Kerala coast.